Speaking of Groundhogs

Happy Groundhog Day, everyone! Yesterday, as I was writing about the impact winter weather had on the housing market, I ended up wondering how much winter we really were likely to have left, and so naturally, my thoughts turned to the groundhog. Sadly, it turns out that groundhogs are not very good predictors (37% accuracy, and 33% accuracy would be by chance). You’re better off with The Farmer’s Almanac, which comes in at about 51% accurate. And actually, given the failure of the groundhog, and the fact that the Almanac’s predicting a year in advance, I think that’s pretty impressive. Still, if you really want to know what’s going on with the weather, your best bet is almost certainly NOAA.